Iceberg! Have we reached a tipping point in autism numbers and assessment referrals?

Sorry. I really am. I'm back at the autism research blogging yet again, twice in a week. I know some people will be unhappy about that (I can hear the Twitterer cries already: 'keep yer bloody mouth shut!') but hopefully some won't be so unhappy. But writing this on a nice sunny March Sunday evening with a rerun of Titanic playing on the telly, I'm gonna talk about whether or not we've just hit the iceberg when it comes to US autism (estimated) prevalence (and those from elsewhere) and the huge backlog of autism referrals that's been making news here in Blighty aka dear old England. I'll also come clean and mention that I actually do like the film Titanic. There I said it. 

I appreciate that my use of the word 'iceberg' in the context of this blog is not likely to sit well with some people. How dare I talk about icebergs in the context of autism prevalence and such like? Well, I dare because right now there's a lot of people who are genuinely concerned that more than ever we might have started to head into and indeed, already started to scrape past, an iceberg that's been on the horizon for a number of years. And in the current climate of post-pandemic financial and resource pressures, we haven't exactly got the strongest of hulls in this societal ship in which we're all passengers on. 

So, last week we had the estimated autism prevalence figures for 8-year olds in the United States from the CDC (see here). Actually we had another set of (estimated) figures relating to 4-year olds too (see here). The headline figure: well, words like 'all-time high' have been used to cover the 1 in 36 8-year olds estimated to have autism or an autism spectrum disorder (ASD). As for 4-year olds, and as per other reports (see here), 1 in 47 4-year olds was the headline figure, a leap from previous reports for this age group (1 in 59 in 2018). Both sets of figures chart the estimated numbers of cases of childhood autism and illustrate the ever upward trend that we've been seeing over the past few decades in the US and beyond.

Most press coverage of the CDC data have not sugar-coated it. Yes, there's been talk about how racial disparities in screening and assessment have been reduced in the recent figures and that's a good thing. There's also talk about the (subtly) declining male:female ratio which again, represents good progress in detection and identification. But then the conversations move to the need to provide suitable services. Y'know things like education, social and health services, and this is where the tone gets a little more serious as per the realisation that there's probably not enough suitable or appropriate services for everyone, and what services there currently are, are probably going to become even more scarce as more people need them. As an aside it's interesting too that this time around, some discussions on the new CDC figures have basically poo-pooed the whole 'it's all better awareness' arguments: "This is not just a phenomenon of becoming more sensitive to subtly impaired kids" according to one very senior person intricately involved in the CDC process of autism counting. Progress indeed given the amount of times that argument has been used, fairly unscientifically, in the past.

On this side of the Pond, I think we're starting to really see that process of 'lack of suitable services' playing out in real time. We - the UK we - are still waiting for a truly national autism prevalence initiative but we have some good counting processes in place in relation to countries of the UK like Northern Ireland and their forward-thinking in collecting and publishing school-aged autism prevalence data (see here). Northern Ireland is, I think, due to report in a few weeks time but the last time around the prevalence of autism in school-aged children came it at 1 in 21 children (see here) or 4.7% of school-aged children with autism in 2021/2022. I also happened to stumble on some other, more England-based data recently (see here) that mentioned that "2.84% of 10-14-year olds were diagnosed (1 in 35)." Obviously, one has to be a little careful with that last statistic. What this means is that the latest CDC figures for the US are not an isolated incident. They're more likely part of a global trend where the old 1% prevalence figure is completely out of sight in the rear view mirror.

As to that 'lack of suitable services'? Loads of examples to pick from. Take for example the recent BBC news report (see here) on twins, yes twins, both diagnosed with autism (and dare I say autism heading more towards 'profound'), both with EHCPs (education and healthcare plans) yet one twin offered a place at a specialised setting, the other not. The reason: the specialised setting is 'over-subscribed'. Twins. There's loads more other examples like this. Such examples complemented (if that's the right word) by multiple reports of plans to build more and more specialised schools with seemingly little realisation that said schools take a while to be built and then also need to be suitably staffed, which leads us down another potential rabbit hole. Another aside: we have some of the best teaching cupboards (yes, you heard right) in the world here in England (see here).

And if you think things are critical when it comes to resources for those lucky enough to already have a diagnosis, spare a thought for the thousands and thousands of people - predominantly school-aged children - who are waiting just to get on a waiting list for autism assessment (see here). In England alone there's about 140,000 people waiting at the time of writing (see here), again predominantly school-aged children. And now another reality: one particular part of England has recently decided that the huge numbers of people, again predominately children, wanting an autism assessment will be 'triaged' to filter out 'the most needy' (see here). That's triage as in what's normally seen on the battlefield when care is rationed according to those most in need. So children now have to be 'in crisis' before they're put on a list for a referral for autism assessment. We've hit the iceberg, haven't we? 

I don't really know what else to say about all this. Yes, it's great that everyone is getting better at recognising autism. Yes, it's great that more people are being detected and referred for an assessment. We can pat ourselves on the back for that. Unfortunately, as a society we've had our collective heads buried in the sand about what rising numbers of need actually means. And now, it's having real-world implications for many people and their loved ones. 

How many lifeboats did you say we have?

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Maenner MJ, Warren Z, Williams AR, Amoakohene E, Bakian AV, Bilder DA, Durkin MS, Fitzgerald RT, Furnier SM, Hughes MM, Ladd-Acosta CM, McArthur D, Pas ET, Salinas A, Vehorn A, Williams S, Esler A, Grzybowski A, Hall-Lande J, Nguyen RHN, Pierce K, Zahorodny W, Hudson A, Hallas L, Mancilla KC, Patrick M, Shenouda J, Sidwell K, DiRienzo M, Gutierrez J, Spivey MH, Lopez M, Pettygrove S, Schwenk YD, Washington A, Shaw KA. Prevalence and Characteristics of Autism Spectrum Disorder Among Children Aged 8 Years - Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, 11 Sites, United States, 2020. MMWR Surveill Summ. 2023 Mar 24;72(2):1-14. doi: 10.15585/mmwr.ss7202a1. PMID: 36952288.

Shaw KA, Bilder DA, McArthur D, Williams AR, Amoakohene E, Bakian AV, Durkin MS, Fitzgerald RT, Furnier SM, Hughes MM, Pas ET, Salinas A, Warren Z, Williams S, Esler A, Grzybowski A, Ladd-Acosta CM, Patrick M, Zahorodny W, Green KK, Hall-Lande J, Lopez M, Mancilla KC, Nguyen RHN, Pierce K, Schwenk YD, Shenouda J, Sidwell K, Vehorn A, DiRienzo M, Gutierrez J, Hallas L, Hudson A, Spivey MH, Pettygrove S, Washington A, Maenner MJ. Early Identification of Autism Spectrum Disorder Among Children Aged 4 Years - Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, 11 Sites, United States, 2020. MMWR Surveill Summ. 2023 Mar 24;72(1):1-15. doi: 10.15585/mmwr.ss7201a1. PMID: 36952289.

Estimated autism prevalence in Northern Ireland: 3.3% for 2018-2019

The BBC news headline reading "Autistic children in NI schools trebles in a decade" provides the blogging fodder today.

NI refers to Northern Ireland, and the news report relates to the publication of further findings from the Department of Health in NI [1] on the topic of autism prevalence among school-aged children.

I've covered the NI 'autism in school children' figures for quite a few years on this blog (see here and see here). The stats have gone from 2.3% in 2015/2016 to 2.5% in 2016/2017 to 2.9% in 2017/2018 to the most recent figures of 3.3% in 2018/2019. The report and news coverage focus on how that recent 3.3% figure compared with 1.2% back in 2008/2009. That's quite a shift in the space of just a decade.

A few details are worthy of further mention. First, Northern Ireland seems to be taking a bit of a lead in collecting information about rates of autism in school-aged children (see here). Indeed, many of the 'home countries' making up the United Kingdom (UK) are starting to ask the questions that England, unfortunately, is seemingly not yet asking (see here).

Second, we are told that: "The increase in prevalence of children with autism can be attributed to an annual average increase in the number of children identified with autism of 12% between 2009/10 and 2018/19, against a background of a relatively static school population." This means that the rates of autism in school-aged children are not simply increasing because the school population as a whole is increasing. Indeed, with other not-so-long-ago chatter about long waiting lists for assessment in places like Northern Ireland (see here), one could argue that the current figures are an under-estimate.

Third, with regards to the sex ratio (boys:girls), the 2018/2019 figures suggest that "5.1% of males were identified with autism compared to 1.5% of females." The same figures a decade ago (2008/2009) were 1.9% and 0.4% respectively. I don't however necessarily agree with the: "Autism could therefore be considered to be an extreme of the normal male profile" sentiments expressed by the author to account for this difference but...

Fourth, the rate of the increase across the decade (2008/2009 compared with 2018/2019) was present in every school year. The author focuses in on the fact that nearly 4% of those in Year 6 (the end of primary school) were "identified with autism". He also mentions that most identification of autism in school is occurring when children are aged between 5 and 10 years old. Primary school, it seems, is an important time for the identification of autism.

Fifth: something approaching grading a child for autism 'severity' is also discussed. I know 'severity' is still a contentious issue (someone actually suggested 'severe autism' should be replaced by 'profound autism' which sounds rather sensible). Special educational need (SEN) assessment is a process via which a child's needs are graded. More details about this process applied to Northern Ireland can be found here. SEN stage 4 and SEN stage 5 indicate that a child requires support from school but also that "the education authority shares responsibility with the school." Nearly two-thirds of children identified with autism were at SEN stage 5. This was however down from previous years with the main 'growth' being among those who were gauged at SEN stage 2 and stage 3. The authors caution that such figures are only a snapshot (children can move up and down the SEN stages for example).

Whichever way you cut it, the recent figures out of Northern Ireland show the increasing trend for autism in school-aged children (see here). We can add such figures to those which have recently come out of the United States (see here and see here), Canada (see here) and various other parts of the world. We can quibble about the old 'better awareness' arguments and even diagnostic switching as being primary causes of the increase. I personally do not believe that such explanations even come close to the final reasons for the increase in cases that have been noted and continue to be seen (see here). What I do know is that further finance and resources are required to meet the often complex needs of these children and young adults to allow them to reach their potential.

And minus any emotive language (i.e. tsunami), let's remember that children turn to adults, and many of these children will require on-going help and support into their later years. The question is: are we prepared?

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[1] Waugh I. The Prevalence of Autism (including Asperger Syndrome) in School Age Children in Northern Ireland 2019. Northern Ireland Department of Health. 2019. May 10.

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Autism diagnoses in Northern Ireland: the only way is up

"Autism diagnoses in NI [Northern Ireland] children up by more than 100%" was the headline on the BBC news website recently. It followed a Freedom of Information (FOI) request from the national broadcasting corporation here in Blighty to "all five of Northern Ireland's health and social care trusts... [covering] the period between 2013-14 and 2017-18."

The scale of the issue facing the various health and social care trusts when it comes to the significant 'growth' in both received and 'awaited' autism diagnoses is not to be under-estimated. Indeed, the BBC really needn't have gone down the FOI route because Northern Ireland already collects and quite publicly publishes quite a lot of information about autism in children under their geographical jurisdiction (see here and see here).

The details? Well, if you ever you needed proof that autism is still on the increase among children and young adults, the data provide it: "In total 2,345 children under 18 were diagnosed as autistic last year, compared with 1,047 five years previously." And other details are important too: "In keeping with trends that show males are more likely to be diagnosed, almost three times more boys than girls were found to be autistic in the five years."

What else is there to say? Some old and tired arguments about 'increasing autism awareness' being behind the increase in cases being diagnosed (and awaiting diagnosis and/or assessment) is reported in the BBC piece. About 20 years ago I would have agreed with this but not so much now; we are in an age of autism awareness and have been for several years. Perhaps it's time to start thinking about what factors outside of awareness might also be contributing to the substantial increase? Y'know, entertain the idea that some of the increase may well be a real increase (see here) and start thinking about what factors might be important there?

And with growing numbers of children and young adults being diagnosed with autism, so more current- and future-planning is required to ensure that their health, educational and social needs are met. It sounds great in theory but the reality is that service provisions and resources are already struggling and increasingly scarce. Indeed, a recent article on autism from across the Pond titled "The Coming Care Crisis as Kids With Autism Grow Up" hits the nail right on the head about how 'strained' many systems currently are. And that's without even taking into account what's going to happen 5 or 10 years down the line when more and more autistic children turn into autistic adults. Action is required, like now.

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